Another hot day for the euro

Suffered  the euro once again hot in the currency markets,  with the resistance test  of the euro against the U.S. dollar in the earlier  $ 1.30. Any fall below this level support  an important role promoting the sale of more than  EUR and buy USD.

This force is still the dollar to increase the downward pressure on precious metals, with the sale of severe late yesterday afternoon with the price of gold below $ 1630 for a brief period and silver close to the barrier of $ 30. As Dan Norcini's comments in his blog, can gold and silver markets experience increased volatility during the festivity of birth, and more futures traders offset positions before the holidays. This can decrease in liquidity to highlight the sharp movements in the price - both up and down.


Furthermore,  James Turk discusses in his latest King World News Blog interview how the fallout from the MF Global debacle is draining yet more liquidity from markets. The serious implications of this scandal as far as trust in clearinghouses and brokers are concerned is only just being recognised by the great mass of ordinary investors in America and elsewhere in the world. This loss of confidence in “the system” is causing many investors to withdraw completely from futures trading in gold and silver – which will only accentuate the volatility affecting these markets as a result of reduced volume over the Christmas period and the still uncertain situation in Europe.

Currency traders quoted in The Wall Street Journal say that it’s only a matter of time until the EURUSD falls through the $1.30 mark – and that the next target could be at $1.2860, the year-low from early January. German opposition to raising the €500 billion-euro lending limit on the European Financial Stability Facility encouraged euro-selling. Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee confirmed that it would not be initiating another round of asset purchases – or “QE3” – yesterday, though as commented on in Monday’s News article, if the dollar continues to strengthen against other major currencies (notably, the euro and the Chinese yaun) then the likelihood of more QE from the Fed increases significantly.

However, it should be remembered that the Fed has already promised to keep rates pinned at close to 0% until at least mid-2013, and is also in the process of greatly increasing the amount of dollars held outside of the US – owing to its increasing dollar swap arrangements with other central banks.

The comments Sinclair Jim at his website, commenting on the language of the resolution  yesterday FOMC: "The  Fed made ​​by just swapping the main available to the European Central Bank, and today promised to keep rates near zero until at least mid-2013 and also said they  do not do nothing to further stimulate the economy.  this is the full double talk. "

اقرأ المزيد Résuméabuiyad

Fear not gold bugs

He says even the famous gold trader Jim Sinclair, in an interview the latest King World News, and discuss the response to German Chancellor Angela Merkel of the debt crisis in Europe. Jim also discusses the reality of American political life at the present time, indicating that the surest way for Obama to lose the elections next year for the Fed to move away from inflationary monetary policy. This is a very precarious situation in the Western financial moment.

James Turk’s recent interview with Mr Sinclair can be seen at this link. Fears over the health of the European banking sector – and by extension, the global banking system – are contributing to demand for the US dollar. The gold lease rate – the rate charged for lending gold in exchange for dollars – is at its lowest rate since January 1998.


Moreover, hedge funds and banks are “squaring their books” for the end of the year, meaning taking profits on winning trades and reducing their leverage in order to report favourable end-of-year numbers to their clients. This has exerted further downward pressure on gold futures – accentuated by declining volumes as we head into the Christmas break and an exodus of small speculators in the wake of the MF Global failure.


Longer-term, Silver Wheaton founder Frank Giustra recently summed up the situation well:


“The bottom line is that the money needed to bail out Europe and to fund America’s spiraling debt and future unfunded obligations is in the ten of trillions. IT DOES NOT EXIST. It has to be created by printing money in massive quantities, and despite all the rhetoric you will hear against such policies, in the end it’s the path of least resistance. Printing money is an invisible tax on savings, much easier to initiate, than, say, raising taxes or cutting back on services and entitlements.”

At the same time, the problems are still rising in China, with the Communist Party is now facing an open rebellion from angry villagers in the village of South Wakun. Elsewhere in the Telegraph, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, warns that the country could be faced with the remnants of the epic - after a decade of binge on cheap money. Shanghai Stock Exchange index fell by 30% since May, and now 60% of the peak in 2008.

In the words of Albert Edwards of Societe Generale, "investors significantly reduce the risk of hard landing in China, and other Bric reality (Brazil, Russia, India, China) ... and the 'bloody funny concept of investment" from my point of view

اقرأ المزيد Résuméabuiyad

Indian analysts are different from the expectations of the price of gold

different,gold,expectations,analysts


According to  local experts, the Indian stock markets in a downward direction, and will continue to decline, with foreign investors  fleeing from emerging market equities and currencies. The stock markets and currencies in many emerging countries under the pressure of strong sales for weeks and the prospects for the global economy has been getting bleaker. The price of gold may continue to drop as well - although, according to analysts, the yellow metal the best performance of other assets.

On Thursday morning the gold price dropped 3.8% to 28,300 rupees per 10 grams. According to the Indian analyst Sudarshan Sukhani in the following weeks the gold price will drop as low as 24,000 rupees per 10 grams. The prices at the Indian precious metal markets follow the price developments at the global markets – primarily the New York Comex and the London Bullion Market.


This week the Indian gold price dropped 8%. Nevertheless, while foreign investors continue to withdraw their capital from Indian markets, this could well mean more Indians fleeing to safe havens such as gold and silver. The urge for debt reduction in the financial sector and the demand for dollars from the banking sector were the main reasons why prices dropped in the paper gold markets. Meanwhile, the situation at the physical gold markets is completely different. Indian dealers have said that even after the end of the Indian festival season, investor demand for physical precious metals continues to be very high.


Meanwhile, Ashwani Gujral, main strategist at ashwanigujral.com, expressed his optimism about the long term developments in the gold sector. Unlike fiat currencies, gold cannot be printed or generated electronically by just pressing a button. In the face of a new economic recession, investors at the financial markets are looking for protection in US Treasuries and the US dollar. But there are signs that governments and central banks around the globe will try to solve the immense economic problems by restarting the printing press. This will again pile pressure onto the US dollar and other important currencies.


Gujral expects that after consolidation, the precious metals sector will be ready for a new leap. Gold, silver and other precious metals are – among other tangible assets – the only assets that offer protection against the devaluation of paper currencies. Should the global gold price drop another $100, Gujral's company will take advantage of this situation to stock up its gold reserves.


However, Ashish Shah, analyst at Sushil Global Commodities, advises investors to withdraw from the gold market. According to Shah, technical indicators were suggesting that the gold price would hit new lows. Investors should take advantage of the short-lived price appreciation in the gold price to sell. Shah did not specify as to when he recommended reentering the gold market.


Sumeet Bagadia, head of commodities, currencies, commodities research at Destimoney, optimistic about the base and non-ferrous metals sector. In recent days have reached attractive prices to levels enough to restore under this sector. In particular, zinc, and it seems excessively  from a technical perspective

اقرأ المزيد Résuméabuiyad

Now the price of gold find support purchase

GOld,Mony,News,purchase

Stabilized  gold and silver prices to some extent during the last day, with the price of gold to find a strong support level near $ 1550. Has received good bids on the silver drops about $ 28 per ounce.

As can be seen courtesy of the MarketOracle chart below, the gold price could drop as low as $1,300-$1,400 and still be in a long-term uptrend. A 2008-style financial panic and dash for the dollar could result in a breach of the 35-month moving-average at the $1,300 mark. Given the likely monetary policy response to such a meltdown, however, one can feel pretty safe in assuming that this move – nasty though it would be for gold owners – would be nothing more than short-term in nature.

Gold price finds buying support
2011-DEC-16

Money pile Gold and silver prices have stabilised somewhat over the last day, with the gold price finding strong support near the $1,550 level. Silver has received good bids on drops towards $28 per ounce.

As can be seen courtesy of the MarketOracle chart below, the gold price could drop as low as $1,300-$1,400 and still be in a long-term uptrend. A 2008-style financial panic and dash for the dollar could result in a breach of the 35-month moving-average at the $1,300 mark. Given the likely monetary policy response to such a meltdown, however, one can feel pretty safe in assuming that this move – nasty though it would be for gold owners – would be nothing more than short-term in nature.

Gold price chart

Likewise, as can be seen from the second chart, the story of the US dollar versus other currencies over the last 10 years is one of continual decline – albeit one that has slowed since the Dollar Index hit an all-time low at just under 72 back in March 2008. Since then, the financial crisis has helped prop up the dollar against other currencies, as banks scramble to recapitalise and hedge funds dash for the perceived “safety” of US Treasuries.

However, this relative strength should not be confused with absolute strength: the fact that the gold price has gone up by more than 55% since March 2008 is a good indicator that all is not well with the world’s reserve currency. The dollar can gain value relative to other currencies, while at the same time losing value against precious metals and other tangible assets.

This is especially so when one considers the serious economic problems bedevilling countries all over the world, problems exacerbated by growing political tensions. Yesterday saw the head of the Bank of France launch an outspoken attack on the United Kingdom’s credit rating – stating that the UK was more deserving of a downgrade than France. His criticisms have been echoed this morning by French finance minister Francois Fillon, who has commented: “Our British friends are even more indebted than we are and have a higher deficit, but the ratings agencies do not seem to notice this.”

ZeroHedge provides some good charts for readers to decide for themselves whether the UK or France is the best-looking horse in the glue factory. Suffice to say, neither economy is in a good state; the UK’s deficit is worse than France’s, but the latter’s debt-to-GDP level is higher than the former’s. Moreover, in contrast to France, the UK always has a willing last-resort buyer for its sovereign debt in the form of the Bank of England. However disastrous this debt monetisation may be in terms of future price rises, it does surely mean that a formal default from the UK is less likely than in France, which doesn’t have the dubious luxury of being able to print its own currency

As hedge funds, the Supreme Kyle Bass was  discussed in a television interview several, while  the recapitalization of  U.S. banks and the United Kingdom, the euro zone, banks were not. Finally,  the dress? United Kingdom in the "big problem"

اقرأ المزيد Résuméabuiyad

Gold and silver prices and the decline of production data with the latest Indian

In October, industrial production declined significantly in India. According to data published recently by the Indian government, and the weakness of industrial production in the country increased by 5.1% compared with the same period last year, and observers in the market started to worry about the economic development of India. In recent years,

months an increasing number of foreign investors have been withdrawing their capital and the Indian rupee has been under strong sales pressure. After this data were released both gold and silver prices were under sales pressure. In today's early Asian trading, gold and silver prices could not detach from the price depreciations in other asset markets.

Indian industrial production data for October turned out to be much lower than economists and analysts had expected. This indicates that it will be very difficult for Asia to detach from the economic problems of the eurozone and the US. Indian data came as a shock for many market participants, as expectations that the BRIC states (Brazil, Russia, India and China) might be able to detach from the economic problems of the industrialised countries wane. The same developments took place during the financial crisis in 2008, when emerging markets suffered a significant slowdown. Nevertheless, the extent of the slowdown in Indian industrial production is still remarkable, since October production has dropped to the same level it was at in the first quarter of 2009, during the peak of the financial crisis.

A rising dollar once again caused precious metal prices to drop in today's early Asian trading. During the morning session the US Dollar Index (USDX) climbed up to 79.0. The gold spot price dropped underneath the $1,700 mark and stood at $1,680 per troy ounce at the beginning of the European session. This depreciation in the gold price also affected the silver price. The white metal hit a minimum of $31.20 per troy ounce, but was able to recover slightly afterwards. Concerns remain about liquidity problems in the European banking sector. A report last week from the European Banking Authority states that the continent’s largest banks must raise approximately €115 billion’s worth of capital. This will of course mean reductions in their borrowing and lending, which will have a further depressive effect on the eurozone economy.

Despite the announcement last Thursday by the European Central Bank that will provide the regional banking system with generous allocations, and capital markets at the present time a lot of suffering forced liquidations by institutional investors and hedge funds. Gold and silver did not remain immune to this trend, but remain some of the best assets to hedge against inflation and systemic risk.

اقرأ المزيد Résuméabuiyad

"Helicopter Ben" fly again

"Helicopter Ben" fly again

European shares fell this morning, and after a day of losses in Asian stock markets and low

commodity prices. Once again, the precious metals, this hair caught in the cross-selling of commodities and general risk aversion, with gold falling to less than $ 1700 per ounce and silver $ 31.5 without falling. Apart from the ongoing problems in Europe, and bad news for India's industrial production fall (down now at levels not seen since Q1, 2009) has reached also the confidence of traders.

Though last week saw news that the European Central Bank will lower reserve requirements and loosen collateral requirements for two-year loans to European banks – a camouflaged method of quantitative easing – ECB chief Mario Draghi is still insisting that the bank will not engage in mass debt-monetisation beyond the roughly $210 billion’s worth of sovereign debt it has already bought.

Standard & Chartered has also predicted that the UK economy will fall back into recession next year – an unsurprising prediction when one considers the money supply growth trends in the UK recently. New analysis from the Bank for International Settlements also casts doubt on the Bank of England’s quantitative easing policies, noting in a study into the QE programmes in the UK and US that they “had a significant impact on financial markets when the first stages were announced, but the effects became smaller for later extensions”. This is another way of saying that QE can only be “effective” insofar as the injections of new money get larger and larger, with the central bank’s balance sheet growing larger and larger and its leverage spiralling ever-higher. Taken far enough, this will lead to hyperinflation.

Add to this growing concern that major continental banks could be at risk of failure (something James Turk discussed in a recent KWN Blog interview) and it’s no surprise that we are seeing hedge funds once again running to the perceived “warm embrace” of the US dollar and Treasuries. The Dollar Index (USDX) is now over 79.10, with the EURUSD now at 1.326 as of 12.24GMT.

As can be seen from a five-year chart of the EURUSD, lows in this exchange rate in the autumn of 2008, late February 2009, and during the summer of 2010 have preceded major money printing moves by the Federal Reserve. The present strength in the dollar relative to other currencies – as seen by the rising USDX – thus makes it far more likely that the Fed will engage in more quantitative easing, as the Fed is looking to weaken the dollar against other currencies in order to encourage US exports.

Thus, the relative strength of the dollar generates QE, which in turn generates high prices of gold and silver. If the USDX a lot of moves above 80, we are likely to Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials starting to "talk down" the dollar. If this psychological ploys fail, the probability of the occurrence of "QE3" a significant increase

اقرأ المزيد Résuméabuiyad

now gold exports hit new record high

now gold exports hit new record high

According to the WGC, this year Japan's gold exports will reach 100 metric tonnes. Data from the According to the World Gold Council (WGC), Japan's exports of gold is at the highest level since 1985. In reference to data from the Ministry of Finance of Japan, the World Gold Council reported that during the first eight months of this year, Japan exported 95.6 metric tons of gold..

Referring to Bloomberg's data, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogy, Japan's largest gold dealer, announced that during the first nine months of this year the company acquired 40% more gold bars and jewellery from private citizens than the same period last year. Japan is the only country in the world that does not produce important amounts of gold, but does have significant gold exports.

According to other data from Bloomberg, investments in gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds) dropped to 2,356.716 metric tonnes, after having hit a new record high of 2.358,206 metric tonnes on December 6. Nevertheless, analysts point out that the upward trend in gold ETFs investments remains intact. Currently investors only sell when they are in need of liquidity. Gold will continue to be an excellent investment that protects from high price volatility and systemic risks at the financial markets. Investors are especially keeping a wary eye on Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

In May 2010 crisis hit the periphery countries in the euro area, and now seems to be eroding confidence in the debt of "core" such as Germany and France. Has been awarded each of these countries generous credits and guarantees to its partners in the euro area of bankruptcy, thus relieving their own creditworthiness in the process. As long as Europe does not find any solutions to financial problems, investors will continue to search for gold and other precious metals as a safe haven.

اقرأ المزيد Résuméabuiyad

Now Gold rock of stability in the middle of the euro storm

news for Gold And Mony

rock of stability in the middle of the euro storm

We witnessed a somewhat disappointing performance from the ECB’s Mario Draghi yesterday, at least for those that were expecting the “big bazooka”, and many in financial markets were. After all if the ECB is to exceed its treaty-defined mandate, it might as well get the go-ahead from the original source of that mandate: elected representatives of euro-member countries. So the central bankers left their options open and passed the buck to the politicians meeting today.

That does not mean that nothing was done, interest rates were lowered to 1%, historical lows for the common currency, which leaves the most important currencies in the world all in negative real rate territory as this interactive chart shows.

Markets expressed their disappointment with zest: EURUSD, major European indices and Brent crude plunged, risk spreads and euro debt yields rose. Even gold fell from above $1,750 per troy ounce at the beginning of Draghi’s speech to a close just above $1,710, although the gold price in euros remained near its €1,300 per ounce peak.

So that brings us to yet another make-or-break, edge of the precipice, 11th hour meeting of top EU players ready to save the euro, and if doomsayers at some respected financial firms are to be believed, civilization itself.

As of this writing it looks like no agreement has been reached on the major sticking points: Eurobonds, EFSF and ESM and other bailout measures, in fact the heads of government at the summit seem to want to hand the responsibility back to the ECB. "When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail". All the ECB has is an electronic printing press.

news for Gold And Mony


rock of stability in the middle of the euro storm

اقرأ المزيد Résuméabuiyad